Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: August 2019
Issued: 30 Jul 2019
For August 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of equatorial Southeast Asia spanning from 10°S to 7°N. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill.
For August, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of equatorial Southeast Asia (from 10°S to 7°N). The higher probabilities of below-normal rainfall are over inland regions. The skill is generally highest south of the Equator where all three models tend to have moderate to high skill. North of the equator, however, the model corresponds to regions where there are only low to moderate skill.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions, except for coastal areas of the southern parts of Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Viet Nam, where above-normal rainfall is predicted. Notwithstanding, model skill for August over land in this part of the region is generally poor.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for August 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for August 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).