Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: July 2019
Issued: 28 Jun 2019
For July 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of equatorial Southeast Asia spanning from 10°S to 7°N. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent across models, or have low skill.
For July’s rainfall, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of equatorial Southeast Asia (from 10°S to 7°N). The higher probabilities of below-normal rainfall are over regions south of the Equator where all three models tend to have moderate to high skill. North of the equator, however, the models are less confident of below-normal rainfall, and it corresponds to regions where there are only low to moderate skill.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions, except for coastal areas of the southern parts of Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam, as well as over Cambodia where above-normal rainfall is predicted. Notwithstanding, model skill for July over land in this part of the region is generally poor.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for July 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for July 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).