Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: June 2019
Issued: 30 May 2019
For June 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of southern Southeast Asia and northern Philippines. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent between models, or have low skill.
Over southern Southeast Asia, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict generally an increased chance of below-normal rainfall. The higher probabilities of below-normal rainfall are over regions south of the Equator, with moderate to high skill. Nearer to the equator, the models are less confident of below-normal rainfall, which corresponds to regions where there is only low to moderate skill scattered.
For northern Southeast Asia, the three models differ in their predictions, except for northern Philippines where below-normal rainfall is predicted. Notwithstanding, model skill for June over land is generally poor over this region.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for June 2019.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for June 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).