Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: May 2019
Issued: 29 Apr 2019
For May 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over most of northern Southeast Asia and parts of Indonesia. Elsewhere, predictions either are not consistent between models, or have low skill.
Over most parts of northern Southeast Asia in May, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall. The highest probabilities of below-normal rainfall are over the Philippines. Models’ skill scores for the below-normal category are relatively high over the Philippines at this time of year, with moderate skill for other parts of the region mentioned above.
For southern Southeast Asia, all three models predict below-normal rainfall over the Banda Sea, and above-normal rainfall over the western equatorial region. While the model skill is relatively high over the Banda Sea, the skill is generally low for the above-normal region. Elsewhere, there is no dominant tercile predicted across the three models.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information)
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for May 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).