Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall Outlook: April 2019

Issued: 29 Mar 2019

For April 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over the northern parts of Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, predictions either have no dominant tercile category, are not consistent across the three models, or have low skill.

For April’s rainfall, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall for most parts of northern Southeast Asia. The highest probabilities of below-normal rainfall are centred around 10°N. Models’ skill scores for the below-normal category are relatively high over the Philippines at this time of year, with moderate skill for other parts of the region mentioned above.

For the rest of Southeast Asia, the model skill is either low, there is no dominant tercile predicted, or no consistent predictions across the three models.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for April 2019
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for April 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for April 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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