Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: March 2019
Issued: 28 Feb 2019
For March 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over the Philippines. Elsewhere, the models predict no dominant tercile category or predictions’ skill scores are too low.
For March 2019, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office – predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall over the Philippines (Figures 1-3). The extent of the affected areas and the likelihood vary across models. Specifically, the CFSv2 model extends the drier region further west and indicates much higher probabilities of below-normal conditions than the other models. Models’ skill scores are moderate or good for the below-normal category over this region in March.
The models favour above-normal condition over much of the Indonesian Archipelago however the models’ skill scores are poor for this region during this time of the year. For the rest of Southeast Asia, either there is no dominant tercile, or the model skill is low.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for March 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for March 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).