Rainfall

Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2019

Issued: 28 Jan 2019

For February 2019, below-normal rainfall is favoured over the Philippines, northern Borneo, and parts of Viet Nam and Myanmar. Elsewhere, no dominant tercile category is predicted.

For February’s rainfall, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict an increased chance of below-normal rainfall over the Philippines, northern Borneo, and parts of Viet Nam and Myanmar. The highest probability of below-normal rainfall is over the Philippines. Model skill is relatively high over the Philippines at this time of year, with low to moderate skill for the other regions mentioned above.

For the rest of the Southeast Asia region, the model skill is either low, or there is no dominant tercile from the three models.

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Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2019.
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Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
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Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2019 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.
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