Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2026 (MAM)
For MAM 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region.
For MAM 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent (Figure 1). Most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile over this region (Figure 2). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is also predicted over most of the region (Figure 1), except for the southeastern parts where near-normal temperature is predicted. Most models agree on above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for much of western Mainland Southeast Asia, with some models (4 to 6 models) agreeing on the most likely tercile elsewhere in the region (Figure 2). Model skill for Mainland Southeast Asia is moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature and low to moderate for predicting near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for MAM 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for MAM 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for MAM based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.