Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: February-April 2026 (FMA)
Issued: 31 Jan 2026
For FMA 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For FMA 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent (Figure 1). Most models (more than six models) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile over this region (Figure 2). Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of the Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal temperature is predicted over the region (Figure 1), except for the central and southeastern parts where near-normal or near- to above-normal temperature is predicted. Most models agree on above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for northern and western Mainland Southeast Asia, while elsewhere in the region some models (4 to 6 models) agree on the most likely tercile (Figure 2). Model skill is moderate to good for predicting above-normal temperature for Mainland Southeast Asia and low to moderate for predicting near-normal temperature.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for FMA 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for JFM 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for JFM based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.