Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: April-June 2025 (AMJ)
Issued: 19 Mar 2025
For AMJ 2025, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over much of the ASEAN region.
For AMJ 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over much of the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), with near-normal temperature predicted over much of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the Maritime Continent. For Mainland Southeast Asia, the near-normal temperature over the central and eastern regions are predicted with largest extent by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3), followed by the ECMWF model (Figure 2) and then the NCEP model (Figure 1). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good over most of these regions, and moderate for near-normal temperature for the mentioned regions.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for AMJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for AMJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.