Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: May-July 2025 (MJJ)
Issued: 30 Apr 2025
For MJJ 2025, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over Southeast Asia.
For MJJ 2025, an increase in chance of above-normal temperature is predicted over all of Southeast Asia based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over the Maritime Continent. For Mainland Southeast Asia, the ECMWF model (Figure 2) predicts the highest chance of above-normal temperature, followed by the UK Met Office model (Figure 3), with the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicting a mix of near- and above-normal temperature. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good over most of Southeast Asia, and low to moderate for near-normal temperature over Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MJJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MJJ 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for MJJ based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.