Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: May 2024
Issued: 30 Apr 2024
For May 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region.
For May 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region, apart from over the northernmost parts (all three models) and the southernmost parts (ECMWF and UKMO models, Figures 2 – 3). Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good over the ASEAN region, apart from over the northern most parts.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for May 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for May 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for May based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.