Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: October-December 2018 (OND)
Issued: 28 Sep 2018
For OND 2018, below-normal or near-normal rainfall is favoured over the Maritime Continent.
For OND 2018, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal or near-normal rainfall conditions over much of the Maritime Continent, with the likelihood of the respective tercile categories varying markedly across the three models. All three models have generally good skill over the Maritime Continent and the eastern coastal areas of the Mainland Southeast Asia.
Elsewhere, the model skill is either low, or there is no dominant tercile from the combined outlooks of NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF and UK Met Office models.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2018.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for OND 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.