Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: May-July 2022 (MJJ)
Issued: 27 Apr 2022
For MJJ 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the southern ASEAN region, apart from below-normal rainfall over the western Maritime Continent.
For MJJ 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the southern ASEAN region, apart from the western Maritime Continent. Among the three models, the NCEP model (Figure 1) and UK Met Office model (Figure 2) predict above-normal rainfall for most of the southern ASEAN region, while the ECMWF model confines the increased chance of above-normal rainfall to the region south of the equator. The models’ skill is moderate to relatively good over the southern ASEAN region.
Over the northern ASEAN region, the model’s skill is low, apart from over the Philippines, where it is moderate. However, there is no dominant predicted tercile for the Philippines in MJJ 2022.
Over the northern ASEAN region, the model’s skill is low, apart from over the Philippines, where it is moderate. However, there is no dominant predicted tercile for the Philippines in MJJ 2022.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MJJ 2022.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MJJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for MJJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for MJJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.