Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: April-June 2022 (AMJ)
Issued: 31 Mar 2022
For AMJ 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the ASEAN region.
For AMJ 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the ASEAN region, apart from the equatorial region where there is a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall. Among the three models, the NCEP model (Figure 1) is most confident of above-normal rainfall over the northern ASEAN region, while the UK Met Office model is most confident of above-normal rainfall for the southern Maritime Continent. Across the equator, there is disagreement between the three models.
The model skill is moderate to relatively good for southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, and low to moderate for the rest of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for AMJ 2022.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for AMJ 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for AMJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for AMJ based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.