Rainfall

For JFM 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted over the equatorial region, and parts of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). Over the equatorial region, the NCEP and UK Met Office models (Figures 1 and 3) show higher confidence for above-normal rainfall, as compared to the ECMWF model (Figure 2). Over Mainland Southeast Asia, the NCEP model shows largest extent for above-normal rainfall, followed by the UK Met Office and ECMWF models. However, it is the dry season for Mainland Southeast Asia. Models’ skill for above-normal rainfall is moderate to good for the equatorial region, and low to moderate for Mainland Southeast Asia.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the northeastern and parts of southern Maritime Continent based on the multimodel ensemble (Figure 4). The NCEP model (Figure 1) shows below-normal rainfall mainly over northeastern Maritime Continent, whereas the ECMWF and Met Office models (Figures 2 and 3) show below-normal rainfall also over the southern Maritime Continent, in addition to above mentioned regions. The model skill is moderate to good for northeastern Maritime Continent but low to moderate over the southern Maritime Continent.