Rainfall

For FMA 2024, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the equatorial region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The UK Met Office model (Figure 3) shows the highest confidence for above-normal rainfall over the central Maritime Continent, followed by the ECMWF and then the NCEP models (Figures 2 and 1). Models’ skill is moderate to good for above-normal rainfall over the equatorial region.

Below-normal rainfall is predicted over the Philippines and northeastern Borneo, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). The ECMWF (Figure 2) and UK Met Office (Figure 3) show high confidence for below-normal rainfall for this region, whereas the NCEP model (Figure 1) predicts near-normal rainfall.

For Mainland Southeast Asia, the models also show disagreement. Over Myanmar, the NCEP and ECMWF models (Figures 1 and 2) predict below-normal rainfall, while the UK Met Office model (Figure 3) predict no dominant tercile. Over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia, the NCEP model predicts above-normal rainfall, whereas the ECMWF and UK Met Office models predict predominantly a mix of near-normal and no dominant tercile. The models’ skill for below-normal rainfall is low to moderate over Mainland Southeast Asia.