Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2018
Issued: 30 Jan 2018
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, above average rainfall is expected over the Philippines and Sabah (Malaysia) (Figure 1), which is consistent with the La Niña conditions. The model has considerable skill against Aphrodite and ERA-Interim over this region (Figure 2 and 3). The region of above average rainfall is also in good agreement with other models (ECWMF, UK Met Office and JMA).
A band of below average rainfall is forecast to cover southern Peninsular Malaysia, Sarawak, Singapore, and the Indonesian regions of southern Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Papua. While the skill of the NCEP CFSv2 is moderate for these regions, below average rainfall is also forecast by other models for similar regions.
For the rest of ASEAN region, the model skill is either low, or there is no dominant tercile from the NCEP CFSv2 model or other models (ECWMF, UK Met Office and JMA).
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s rainfall forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s rainfall forecasts against ERA-Interim.