Rainfall

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model (Figure 1), below-average rainfall is expected in the equatorial parts of the ASEAN region between 10˚N-10˚S for April 2018. However, the skill of the model against Aphrodite and ERA-Interim over this part of Southeast Asia for April is low to moderate (Figure 2 and 3). Nevertheless, the combined outlook from other models (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA) for the equatorial region is consistent with that of NCEP’s.

As for the north-eastern part of the Maritime Continent (near Philippines), most models (NCEP, UK Met Office, and JMA) indicate outlook for wetter conditions, with the exception of the ECMWF model which indicates only weak and mixed conditions. In general, there is some model skill for this part of the region related to ENSO, during this time of the year.

For the rest of the ASEAN region, either the model skill is low, or there is no dominant outcomes from the NCEP CFSv2 model or the other models (ECWMF, UK Met Office, and JMA).

Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for April 2018.