Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: March-May 2024 (MAM)
Issued: 29 Feb 2024
For MAM 2024, the models predict an increased chance of above-normal temperature over the ASEAN region.
For MAM 2024, above-normal temperature is predicted over the ASEAN region based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). All three models agree with high confidence on above-normal temperature over most of the region. Models’ skill for predicting above-normal temperature for the ASEAN region is relatively good over most of the region, except of parts over northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia where the skill is moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for MAM 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Temperature tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for MAM 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Temperature tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for MAM 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for MAM 2024 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for MAM based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.