Temperature
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: July-September 2025 (JAS)
Issued: 24 Jun 2025
For JAS 2025, above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia.
For JAS 2025, an increase in chance of above-normal temperature is predicted for Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). The probability of above-normal temperature is high for most of the region. Most models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for most of Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for JAS 2025 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for JAS 2025. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological temperature for JAS based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.