Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: July 2026
Issued: 1 Jul 2026
For July 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted most of the ASEAN region.
For July 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood in the equatorial region, northeastern Maritime Continent, and southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for almost the entire ASEAN region, apart from the southern part of the region. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is good for much of the region, apart from the northernmost part where it is low to moderate.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for July 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for July 2026. Where there no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological temperature for July based on ERA5 (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.