Temperature
Monthly Temperature Outlook: April 2026
For April 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over the southern ASEAN region and near- to above-normal temperature over the northern ASEAN region.
For April 2026, above-normal temperature is predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region, with the highest likelihood over the eastern part, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). Most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal temperature as the most likely tercile for southern ASEAN region. For the northern ASEAN region, a mix of near-normal and near- to above-normal temperature is predicted, with some models (4 to 6) in agreement regarding the most likely tercile. Model skill for predicting above-normal temperature is relatively good for the southern ASEAN region, and moderate to good for the northern ASEAN region.
Figure 1: Temperature tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for April 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for April 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.