Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: September-November 2020 (SON)
Issued: 31 Aug 2020
For SON 2020, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the Maritime Continent, as well as coastal regions of Viet Nam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar.
For SON 2020, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall over the Maritime Continent (apart from Sumatra, Peninsular Malaysia and northeastern Borneo) and coastal regions Viet Nam, Cambodia, Thailand, and Myanmar.
For most parts of the Maritime Continent, the model skill is moderate to high. The model skill is low elsewhere in the region.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for SON 2020.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for SON 2020 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.