Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: December 2020 - February 2021 (DJF)
Issued: 28 Nov 2020
For DJF 2020-2021, above-normal rainfall is predicted by the models for much of northern Maritime Continent as well as southern Viet Nam.
For DJF 2020-2021, all three models – NCEP, ECMWF, and UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) – predict above-normal rainfall for southern Viet Nam and much of the Maritime Continent outside the equatorial region. The model skill is high to moderate in these regions.
Near-normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted over the equatorial region by ECMWF and UK Met Office (Figures 2 and 3), with NCEP (Figure 1) predicting below-normal rainfall for this region. The models’ skill for below-normal rainfall is mostly moderate to low within this region.
Elsewhere, there is either no dominant tercile or model skill is low for this time of the year.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for DJF 2020-2021.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for DJF 2020-2021 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for DJF based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for DJF based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1981-2010).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.