Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: December 2017 - February 2018 (DJF)
Issued: 28 Nov 2017
Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model for DJF, much of the region is predicted to be in near average rainfall conditions (Figure 1), except for parts of the eastern Maritime Continent where above average rainfall is predicted, and western Borneo where below average rainfall is predicted. Other models (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA) are in good agreement with this outlook.
The skill of the NCEP CFSv2 model over the north-eastern parts of Southeast Asia region is high for this time of year (Figures 2 and 3).
Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for DJF 2017 – 2018.
Figure 2: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) rainfall forecasts against APHRODITE.
Figure 3: Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) of NCEP’s DJF (Dec-Jan-Feb) rainfall forecasts against ERA-Interim.
The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.