Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: November 2022
Issued: 31 Oct 2022
For November 2022, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the ASEAN region.
For November 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, with highest likelihood over southern Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The exceptions are over parts of the western Maritime Continent where an increased chance of below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted, and over parts of Borneo Island where no dominant tercile is predicted. The models’ skill is moderate to good for the mentioned regions with above-normal rainfall, but low for the regions for which below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region but with relatively lower likelihood than the Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The only exception is over northeast Mainland Southeast Asia where below-normal rainfall is predicted. The NCEP and UK Met Office models predict larger spatial coverage of an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the region (Figures 1 and 3), with the ECMWF model showing near- to above-normal rainfall for much of the region (Figure 2). The models’ skill is low for most of Mainland Southeast Asia, although it is moderate to good for the easternmost part of the region.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the region but with relatively lower likelihood than the Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The only exception is over northeast Mainland Southeast Asia where below-normal rainfall is predicted. The NCEP and UK Met Office models predict larger spatial coverage of an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the region (Figures 1 and 3), with the ECMWF model showing near- to above-normal rainfall for much of the region (Figure 2). The models’ skill is low for most of Mainland Southeast Asia, although it is moderate to good for the easternmost part of the region.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for November 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for November based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for November based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.