Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: November 2018
Issued: 31 Oct 2018
For November 2018, below-normal rainfall is favoured over much of southern ASEAN region and the Philippines. Elsewhere, climatological probabilities are predicted.
For November’s rainfall, all three models – NCEP CFSv2, ECMWF, and the UK Met Office (Figures 1-3) predict below-normal conditions for much the southern ASEAN region and the Philippines. NCEP CFSv2 predicts the largest spatial extent of below-normal conditions, including most of Borneo and parts of Peninsular Malaysia, while ECMWF and the UK Met Office restrict the drier conditions to the Philippines and those regions south of the equator.
For the rest of the northern ASEAN region, there is no dominant tercile among the models, indicating climatological probabilities, apart from northern Myanmar. Here, all three models predict an increase likelihood of below-normal rainfall, although the skill is low for this region in all models.
Overall, the models’ skill for rainfall are very good south of the equator, the Philippines, and parts of the South China Sea.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for November 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for November 2018 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).