Rainfall

Based on the NCEP CFSv2 model, below normal rainfall is expected between approximately 5°N and 20°N, including southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia , as well as parts of the Philippines (Figure 1). The model has some skill in this region against Aphrodite and ERA-Interim (Figures 2 and 3). This is comparable to other models for southern parts of the Mainland Southeast Asia, but over the Philippines most other models predict a higher probability of above normal rainfall (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA).

For the rest of the region, the model skill is either low, or there is no dominant tercile from the NCEP CFSv2 model. The other models also have no consistent prediction for the rest of Southeast Asia, apart from parts of Indonesia where the other models consistently predict normal to above normal rainfall (ECMWF, UK Met Office, and JMA). 

Figure 1: Rainfall anomaly for November 2017.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.