Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: March 2026
For March 2026, below-normal rainfall is predicted for parts of the central and western Maritime Continent, while above-normal rainfall is predicted for most of the northeastern Maritime Continent.
For March 2026, below-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of the central and western Maritime Continent, while above-normal rainfall is predicted over most of the northeastern Maritime Continent based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 1). For the northeastern and central Maritime Continent regions, most of the models (more than six models, Figure 2) predict above-normal and below-normal rainfall, respectively, as the dominant tercile, while only four to six models agree on below normal rainfall over the western and southwestern region. Model skill is good for predicting above-normal rainfall over the northeastern Maritime Continent and moderate for below-normal rainfall over the western and central Maritime Continent.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, there is little agreement between the models for most of the region with no dominant tercile being predicted. Model skill is low to moderate for much of the region.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi model ensemble for March 2026 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Number of models in agreement in the multi-model ensemble for the dominant tercile for March 2026. Where there is no dominant tercile, it refers to the number of models with near-normal tercile (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for March based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 4: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for March based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.