Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: June 2022
Issued: 31 May 2022
For June 2022, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the southern ASEAN region.
For June 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region, with highest likelihood over southern Maritime Continent (Figure 4). The exceptions include parts of the western Maritime Continent where no dominant tercile is predicted. The models’ skill is low to moderate for the Maritime Continent for the NCEP model and moderate to relatively good for the ECMWF and UK Met Office models.
For the northern ASEAN region, below- to near-normal rainfall over coastal parts of western and southern Mainland Southeast Asia is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). There is either disagreement between the models or no dominant tercile predicted over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines (Figure 1-3). The models’ skill for all three terciles is low for most of the northern ASEAN region, although it is low to moderate for coastal parts of western Mainland Southeast Asia.
For the northern ASEAN region, below- to near-normal rainfall over coastal parts of western and southern Mainland Southeast Asia is predicted based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). There is either disagreement between the models or no dominant tercile predicted over the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines (Figure 1-3). The models’ skill for all three terciles is low for most of the northern ASEAN region, although it is low to moderate for coastal parts of western Mainland Southeast Asia.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for June 2022.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for June 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for June based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.