Rainfall
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: February 2023
Issued: 28 Jan 2023
For February 2023, models predict above-normal rainfall over much of the northern Maritime Continent and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia.
For February 2023, above-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the northern Maritime Continent, with highest likelihood over the Philippines, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4). Below-normal rainfall is also predicted over parts of Borneo by all three models (Figures 1-3). The models’ skill is moderate to good for northern Maritime Continent for above-normal tercile category and low to moderate for central Borneo for below-normal tercile category. Elsewhere in the Maritime Continent, the models’ skill is low or no dominant tercile is predicted.
For Mainland Southeast Asia, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), there is an increase in chance of above-normal rainfall over the southeastern portion. Below- to near-normal rainfall is also predicted over parts of the northwestern Mainland Southeast Asia by all three models (Figures 1-3). Elsewhere, there is either no dominant tercile predicted or disagreement between the models. The models’ skill is generally low over much of Mainland Southeast Asia, with moderate skill over the southeastern portion.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for February 2023 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for February based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.