Long-range Forecasting






06 APR 2022


ASMC Bulletin (Issue #9, Mar 2022)


  • In the second half of 2021,
    • A weak negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) prevailed through the second half of 2021.
    • La Niña conditions re-emerged in September 2021.
    • The Southern ASEAN region experienced a subdued haze season due to a relatively wetter dry season.
    • Traditional dry season for the Northern ASEAN region began from December 2021.
  • Over Southeast Asia,
    • Typhoon Rai brought record winds and heavy rainfall to Viet Nam.
    • Seasonal variation in June – September 2021 impacted the agriculture sector in Thailand.
    • Brunei Darussalam experienced anomalous heavy rainfall in July 2021.
    • Intra-seasonal and inter-annual climate variability contributed to extreme events in the Philippines.
  • Between March and August 2022,
    • The current La Niña conditions are predicted to return to ENSO neutral conditions by mid-2022.
    • The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is expected to continue in its current neutral phase.
    • Models predict wetter conditions over much of Southeast Asia, in line with La Niña conditions.
    • Hotspot activity and smoke haze over Mekong sub-region are likely to persist till May 2022.
  • ASMC Regional Capability-Building Programme (ACaP):
    • 17th ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-17) held in November 2021
    • ASEAN Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop held in February 2022
    • Upcoming event: ASEANCOF-18 (tentatively May 2022)

Climate Review (July – December 2021): A weak negative IOD event followed by a late re-emerging of La Niña conditions

Regional Fire and Haze Situation (July – December 2021): A subdued haze season over the southern ASEAN region

Climate and Haze Outlook (March – August 2022): Signs of La Niña decay

Significant weather events in Southeast Asia

Regional activities and ASMC events