Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: October-December 2022 (OND)
Issued: 30 Sep 2022
For OND 2022, above-normal rainfall is predicted for much of the ASEAN region.
For OND 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the ASEAN region. The highest likelihood for all three models is over the southern Maritime Continent, while there is only a relatively small increase in chance over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. Model skill is moderate to good over the southern Maritime Continent, while low to moderate over Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines.
The exception to the wetter conditions is over the western Maritime Continent and northern Borneo where below-normal rainfall is predicted. However, model skill is low at this time of year for the western Maritime Continent.
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 3: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of UK Met Office model for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 4: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of the multi-model ensemble for OND 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for OND based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for OND based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.