Rainfall
Seasonal Rainfall Outlook: January-March 2022 (JFM)
Issued: 30 Dec 2021
For JFM 2021, above-normal rainfall is predicted for the eastern Maritime Continent and the Malay Peninsula.
For JFM 2022, based on the multi-model ensemble (Figure 4), there is an increased chance of above-normal rainfall for much of the Maritime Continent, except for southern Sumatra, Java, southwestern Borneo and southern Sulawesi where no dominant tercile is predicted. The NCEP model (Figure 1) is most confident of above-normal rainfall over the Maritime Continent, while the UK Met Office and ECMWF models (Figures 2 and 3) predict an increased chance of above-normal rainfall mainly over the eastern Maritime Continent. The models’ skill is moderate to relatively high for northeastern and northwestern parts of the Maritime Continent and low to moderate elsewhere.
Elsewhere, the models show no dominant tercile (northern Philippines) or have low skill (Mainland Southeast Asia).
Figure 1: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of NCEP model for JFM 2022.
Figure 2: Rainfall tercile summary predictions of ECMWF model for JFM 2022 (contains modified Copernicus C3S information).
Figure 5: Average climatological rainfall's lower tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
Figure 6: Average climatological rainfall's upper tercile boundary for JFM based on CHIRPS (Reference period: 1991-2020).
The qualitative outlook is assessed for the region in general. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.