Long-range Forecasting






04 OCT 2022


ASMC Bulletin (Issue #10, Sep 2022)


  • In the first half of 2022,
    • La Niña conditions were present throughout.
    • Signs of a negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) developing from May 2022.
    • Wetter-than-normal weather was recorded over much of Southeast Asia.
    • Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze were observed over Mekong sub-region.
  • Over Southeast Asia,
    • Heavy rain fell over central Viet Nam during the traditional dry season (March – April 2022).
    • Tropical cyclones in April and June over the Philippines showed influence by El Niño Southern Oscillation.
    • A two-day spell of widespread rainfall caused floods at Brunei Darussalam in March 2022.
    • Polar vortex brought below-normal temperature over Thailand in early April 2022.
  • For September 2022 till February 2023,
    • La Niña is predicted to continue until end 2022 and return to neutral by January 2023.
    • IOD is likely to persist in negative phase but to weaken towards end 2022.
    • Models indicate an enhanced chance of above-normal rainfall (wetter) conditions over Southeast Asia. Wetter conditions for the southern ASEAN region are expected to set in from October 2022.
    • Onset of Northeast Monsoon by end 2022 signals the start of dry season over Mekong sub-region.
  • ASMC Regional Capability-Building Programme (ACaP):
    • 18th ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-18) held in May 2022
    • Upcoming: ASMC Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) Workshop (February 2023)
    • Upcoming: Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods – Module 3 (WPNM-M3) Workshop (February 2023)

Climate Review (January – June 2022): La Niña event persisted in the first half of 2022

Regional Fire and Haze Situation (January – June 2022): Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze over the Mekong sub-region

Climate and Haze Outlook (September 2022 – February 2023): Negative IOD until November and La Niña likely to persist for the rest of this year

Significant weather events in Southeast Asia

ASMC events: ASEANCOF-18