Summary

• In the first half of 2021,
  • The 2020 La Niña event ended while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remained generally neutral. A complete circumnavigation of the MJO pulse during the second quarter of 2021 contributed to the mix of below- to above-average rainfall over Southeast Asia.
  • Moderate to dense smoke haze affected much of the Mekong sub-region in the first quarter of 2021. Hotspot counts were comparable to those in previous years for the same period.
  • Hot and dry spells affected Viet Nam and Thailand during May-July 2021, an intense monsoon over the Bay of Bengal brought heavy rainfall to coastal areas of Myanmar in June 2021, while four tropical cyclones crossed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR).
• For the period September 2021 to February 2022,
  • A negative phase of the IOD developed and is expected to persist until October 2021.
  • For the rest of the year, either ENSO neutral conditions or La Niña conditions could re-develop.
  • Models predict wetter conditions over much of Southeast Asia, particularly over central and southern parts of the Maritime Continent.
• ASMC continues its 5-year Regional Capability-Building Programme (ACaP):
  • 3rd Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP)
  • 2nd Workshop on Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods (WPNM)
  • 16th Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF)
  • Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A)