July – December 2022 Climate Review

• An Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event in Q3 of 2022 with continued La Niña conditions in the second half of 2022.

March to August 2023 Climate Outlook

• La Niña conditions likely to transition into ENSO neutral by Q2 2023.
• Above-normal rainfall is predicted over northern Maritime Continent and much of Mainland Southeast Asia, with below-normal rainfall predicted over much of southern half of the Maritime Continent.

Contents of Issue #10:

• Climate Review (January – June 2022): La Niña event persisted in the first half of 2022
• Regional Fire and Haze Situation (January – June 2022): Persistent dry conditions and transboundary smoke haze over the Mekong sub-region
• Climate and Haze Outlook (September 2022 – February 2023): Negative IOD until November and La Niña likely to persist for the rest of this year
• Significant weather events in Southeast Asia articles from NCHMF, PAGASA, BDMD and TMD
• ASMC events: ASEANCOF-18

The Eighteenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-18) was organised by the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) in collaboration with the ASMC and the ASEANCOF Working Group. Participants from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal summer monsoon 2022 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for June-July-August (JJA) 2022 outlook was achieved through an online session. There was also a special focus on monsoon variability, with a presentation from the Regional Working Group on Asian-Australian Monsoon (AAM-WG).

Contents of Issue #9:

• Climate Review (July – December 2021): A weak negative IOD event followed by a late re-emerging of La Niña conditions
• Regional Fire and Haze Situation (July– December 2021): A subdued haze season over the southern ASEAN region
• Climate and Haze Outlook (March – August 2022): Signs of La Niña decay
• Significant weather events in Southeast Asia articles from NCHMF, TMD, BDMD and PAGASA
• Regional activities and ASMC events: ASEANCOF-17 and Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the ASEAN Region

The seventeenth session of ASEANCOF (ASEANCOF-17) was organised by the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) in collaboration with the ASEANCOF Working Group. Representatives from the NMHSs of ASEAN Member States created a consensus forecast for the boreal winter monsoon 2021/2022 in the ASEAN region. The consensus for December-January-February (DJF) 2021/2022 outlooks was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from NMHSs and Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of seasonal outlooks, questionnaires and discussions regarding the current conditions and predictions for the Southeast Asia region. 

Contents of Issue #8:

• Climate Review (January – June 2021): End of La Niña event
• Regional Fire and Haze Situation (January – June 2021): Transboundary smoke haze over the Mekong sub-region
• Climate and Haze Outlook (September 2021 – February 2022): Negative phase of IOD to persist until October and signs of possible La Niña developing near the end of the year
• Significant weather events in Southeast Asia articles from NCHMF, DMH-Myanmar, TMD and PAGASA
• Regional activities and ASMC events: Using subseasonal outlooks for disaster management in ASEAN (AHA Centre), Third Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections, Weather Prediction by Numerical Methods – Module 2, ASEANCOF-16 and Webinar on Hotspot and Haze Assessment (H2A) for the southern ASEAN Region