Wetter conditions are predicted over most of the equatorial region in Week 1 (11 – 17 May) and over most of southwestern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 2 (18 – 24 May).

Drier than usual conditions are predicted over parts of the eastern half of Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (11 – 17 May).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern Maritime Continent in Week 1 (11 – 17 May). Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over the western and southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (11 – 24 May).

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in the beginning of May 2026. Most models predict the MJO signal to weaken and become inactive by the start of the forecast period and to remain inactive during Week 1 (11 – 17 May). Most models predict an MJO signal to emerge over the Western Pacific (Phase 7) either in Week 2 (18 – 24 May) or after the forecast period.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.