Over much of the northern ASEAN region, wetter conditions are predicted in Week 1 (17 – 23 August), except over parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia where drier conditions are predicted over the next fortnight (17 – 30 August).

Over much of the southern ASEAN region, drier conditions are predicted in the next fortnight (17 – 30 August).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over much of the ASEAN region in the next fortnight (17 – 30 August), except for most of Mainland Southeast Asia and the southern Maritime Continent.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Western Pacific (Phase 6) towards the middle of August 2026, based on the RMM index. Models predict the MJO signal to remain over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) during the forecast period (17 – 30 August), with no coherent sign of eastward propagation.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.