Drier conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent and parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (21 July – 3 August).

Wetter conditions are predicted over much of the rest of Mainland Southeast Asia and the very northeastern part of the Maritime Continent in Week 1 (21 – 27 July).

Warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over most of the Maritime Continent and parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in the next fortnight (21 July – 3 August), in line with the predicted drier conditions.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal emerged over the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) during the second week of July. Most models predict this signal to propagate eastwards reaching the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) by the end of Week 1. In Week 2, most models predict the MJO signal to weaken.

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.