Wetter conditions are predicted over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1 (27 October – 2 November). Wetter conditions are also predicted over most of the southern Maritime Continent in the next fortnight (27 October – 9 November).

Drier conditions are predicted over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (27 October – 2 November).

Warmer than usual temperatures for this time of the year are predicted over the western and central equatorial region in Week 1 (27 October – 2 November), in line with the predicted drier conditions. Warmer than usual temperatures are also predicted over western Mainland Southeast Asia in Week 1.

A Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) signal was present over the Indian Ocean (Phase 2) in the middle of October. Models predict continued eastward propagation of the MJO signal to the Maritime Continent (Phase 4) by the start of the forecast period. For Week 1 (27 October – 2 November), models predict the MJO to weaken over the Maritime Continent (Phases 4 and 5), with some predicting the signal to continue propagating over the Western Pacific (Phases 6 and 7) in Week 2 (3 – 9 November).

The outlook is assessed for the region in general, where conditions are relative to the average conditions for the corresponding time of year. For specific updates on the national scale, the relevant ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services should be consulted.