31 DEC 2023
ASEANCOF
Summary of the Twenty First Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (Online, MSS)
Introduction
The 21st Session of the ASEAN Climate Outlook Forum (ASEANCOF-21) was coordinated by Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) in collaboration with ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre and the ASEANCOF Working Group. ASEANCOF-21 marked 10 years since the first ASEANCOF was held in December 2013. ASEANCOF-21 was held online over four days in November 2023 with the theme ‘The Future of Climate Services in Southeast Asia’’. On the last day of ASEANCOF-21, a webinar session was held which included presentations on the review of 10 years of ASEANCOF, Pilot Hydrological Outlook Forum, and WISER Asia Pacific project. The virtual format enabled a larger audience to attend, with about 60 participants from the ASEAN Member States National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), experts and representatives from climate services attending the meeting over the various days.
Participants from NMHSs, GPCs, ASMC, ASEANCOF Working Group, RIMES, and presenters of the webinar for ASEANCOF-21.
Consensus: Rainfall
The consensus for the December-January-February (DJF) 2023/2024 outlook was achieved through an online session, which included presentations from different NMHSs, questionnaires, and discussions regarding the current climate conditions and predictions for Southeast Asia. In particular, ASEANCOF considered the influence of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the climate system over Southeast Asia.
ASEANCOF-21 agreed that for the upcoming boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter season (DJF 2023-24), below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from over the equatorial region, where a mix of below- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. For Mainland Southeast Asia, a mix of near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted. Near- to above-normal rainfall is predicted over parts of northern and central Mainland Southeast Asia, while below- to near-normal rainfall is predicted mainly over western parts. Elsewhere over this region, near-normal rainfall is predicted.
Consensus maps for probabilistic outlook on rainfall and temperature for DJF 2023-24
Consensus: Temperature
On temperature, ASEANCOF-21 agreed that near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over Southeast Asia. While above-normal temperature is predicted for most of the region, near-normal temperature is predicted over parts of northern and western Myanmar, and near- to above-normal temperature is predicted over parts of Lao PDR, Viet Nam, and the Philippines.
Theme of ASEANCOF-21
The theme of ASEANCOF-21 was ‘The Future of Climate Services in Southeast Asia’. The first three days was spent to cover the development of the consensus outlook, including sharing from GPCs, NMHSs and experts and updates from the Southeast Asia Regional Climate Centre – Network. An introduction to the FOCUS (FOrecast CUstomization System) tool by RIMES for seasonal outlook was given on the first day of ASEANCOF with hands on sessions on the customisation of the model combination for rainfall and temperature outlook in the various ASEAN region. On the last day of ASEANCOF-21, a webinar session was held on sharing of climate services in Southeast Asia, involving NMHSs and users of ASEANCOF information, with presentations from users on the current state and future of services in Southeast Asia.
The ASEANCOF Consensus Statement for DJF 2023-24 can be found here.