21 SEP 2021

Climate Projections

Recap of the 3rd Workshop on the ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3)


Participants of the ARCDAP-3 workshop.

The Third Workshop on ASEAN Regional Climate Data, Analysis and Projections (ARCDAP-3) was conducted with support from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) from 15 – 18 March 2021 on the Zoom platform, as part of ASMC’s 5-year Regional Capability-Building Programme (ACaP). The workshop was led by scientists from the Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS) and attended by representatives from 10 ASEAN National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and relevant agencies, representatives from both WMO’s headquarters and its Regional Office for Asia and the South-West Pacific (RAP), as well as experts from regional and international institutes.

Themes of the workshop
It was recommended at ARCDAP-2 held in March 2019, that ARCDAP-3 turn its focus to the newly available and growing database from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) which will support the anticipated Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Sixth Assessment Report. The workshop was split into five overarching themes: (1) introduction to the overall CMIP initiative and CMIP6, (2) introductory presentations by ASEAN representatives, (3) applications of CMIP6 for studying regional climate processes, (4) CMIP for producing climate change projections, and (5) regional downscaling and future work.

Dr Simon Marsland (Principal Research Scientist, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)), a member of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modelling (WGCM), began with an introductory presentation on the WCRP and CMIP. This was followed with a sharing on the technological advancements from CMIP6 by Francois Delage (Data Scientist, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia (BOM)) and Claire Trenham (Experimental Scientist, CSIRO), in particular the higher equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECS) observed by a number of CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and streamlined data tools such as Synda and Pangeo.

The workshop continued with the next session, where ASEAN representatives shared their experiences from previous national-level climate change studies and the use of climate model data. While most countries presented work that used derived data from CMIP5, they all expressed an interest in incorporating CMIP6 in their work in the future. The third theme followed, with presentations by academic experts on several applications of CMIP6 for the study of important regional climate features such as the representation of precipitation and processes such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). At this juncture, Dr Wilfran Moufouma-Okia (Head, WMO Climate Prediction Services Division) gave a seminar on enhancing climate services for resilient development.

The fractional range coverage method used to sub-select CMIP5 GCMs for Singapore’s Second National Climate Change Study (V2).

The penultimate session of the workshop focused on how CMIP data has been used to produce national climate change projections, with experiences shared by representatives from the BOM, CSIRO, the Viet Nam Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Climate Change (IMHEN), and CCRS. The final theme of the workshop saw Prof Fredolin Tangang (Lead, CORDEX-Southeast Asia (SEA)), present an update and results from CORDEX-SEA’s first phase, while some downscaling results from Singapore’s ongoing Third National Climate Change Study (V3) were also shared by CCRS.

Some findings from CORDEX-SEA’s first phase which downscaled CMIP5 GCMs.

Aside from presentations and dedicated time for questions, participants were also engaged throughout the four days. There were three roundtable discussions and a breakout session that sought participants’ inputs towards developing regionally shared best practices for producing robust climate change projections. While participants understood the decision to not conduct an extensive hands-on session due to the limitations in a virtual setting, many looked forward to having one involving CMIP6 data in the follow-up workshop, which will hopefully take place physically. This opinion was shared by the organising team as well. Further recommended topics included bias-correction, application of extreme indices for impacts assessment and regional model data analysis.

The full Workshop recommendations are detailed in this Meeting Report: ARCDAP-3_Workshop_Report [PDF, 3.406 MB].