Event

01 AUG 2018

S2S, Workshops

Second Workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA II)

Date: 13 AUG 2018 - 17 AUG 2018

Venue: Landmark Village Hotel, Singapore

Objectives of S2S-SEA 

A S2S Multi-model Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) database was set up to host the model outputs from the WMO’s Global Producing Centres (GPCs), which consist of ensembles of subseasonal forecasts up to 60 days. The MEPS is accessible from ECMWF database, through an alternative site on the IRI Data Library and on a site hosted by CMA. The MEPS provides an extensive set of reforecasts (hindcasts) dataset from a number of modelling centres. At the moment, the forecast products lag behind by 3 weeks and hence cannot yet be used operationally.

However, access to the reforecasts dataset would allow operational centres to preview and assess their potential benefits and limitations ahead of real-time products’ being made operational. In preparing for the eventual release of operational products, this Capability Building Programme in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA) aims to:

• Familiarise the participants with the MEPS database
• Improve regional understanding on the mechanisms of subseasonal-to-seasonal predictability
• Equip the participants with the knowledge to investigate the skill and usefulness of the subseasonal forecasts in applications
• Provide training to participants in generating products tailored for risk- and impact-based predictions on the S2S timescale
  S2S-SEA Programme 

S2S-SEA Programme

The proposed programme will be spread over 4 years (2017-2020), split into 2 phases and with 2 workshops in each phase. Activities in Phase 1 will focus on familiarisation of the S2S concept and database, as well as extensive skill assessment of the models available on the database. Activities in Phase 2 will focus on training in developing products for risk- and impact-based predictions on the S2S timescale. As the operational, near real-time forecast information from S2S database is estimated to
be available at the earliest around 2020 on the WMO LC LRFMME platform (Park, et al., 2016), the proposed schedule of the programme is timely.

Second S2S-SEA Workshop (S2S-SEA II)

Meteorological Service Singapore as host of the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) will be organising a 5-day workshop on Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction for Southeast Asia (S2S-SEA II) from 13 to 17 August 2018. This workshop is supported by the World Meteorological Organization’s (WMO) Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction (S2S) Project and is part of a 4-year series of workshops split into two phases. The workshop is part of the multi-year S2S-SEA Capability Building Programme proposed by ASMC to enhance regional capacity and collaboration in this area among the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). To ensure continuity, it is highly encouraged that, as far as possible, the participants identified by NMHSs for the second workshop have been involved in the first workshop and are able to commit to the project over the entire duration of the project.

1. The first set of activities for S2S-SEA II proposed is to briefly recap (a) the concepts S2S database to the participants, (b) the procedures to download the data and process them for analyses. Given the varying configurations of models that contribute to the MEPS database, this activity in itself covers a broad range of skill sets.
2. The second set of activities involves the participants assessing model performance on weekly/biweekly time periods for suitably selected weather/climate indices. These indices will be a progression from the simple, weekly mean temperature and rainfall anomalies analysed during the first workshop. Skill assessment will be done over the hindcast period of models with the option of additional case-studies type of analyses.
3. Critically, the index/indices to be analysed is chosen by considering its/their usefulness in important user-applications to the region, e.g. agriculture and water resources. This application-centric development is appropriate given the product development focus of the Phase 2 of the S2S-SEA (workshops 3 and 4). The choice of index/indices will be informed through pre-workshop feedback from the NMHSs and testing the feasibility and general skill of the index/indices. Based on requirements understood so far (from past ASEANCOF and other regional activities), a potentially useful focus for Southeast Asia is on extreme rainfall indices, e.g. number of dry days, consecutive dry days, high rainfall thresholds.
4. Based on feedback from the first workshop, participants requested for higher spatial resolution information. Thus, an additional workshop activity may include assessing statistical downscaling of S2S prediction for the abovementioned indices, provided that pre-workshop testing demonstrates useful skill. Given the time available, the workshop will explore the technique at an introductory level. If found to be useful, the technique can be further investigated in the third and fourth workshops.

On the final day of the workshop, participants will present their results to consolidate the workshop outcomes. A technical report will be produced documenting the results and combining the outcomes of both S2S-SEA I and S2S-SEA II.

Participation

Each of the 10 ASEAN NMHSs will be represented by up to 2 participants (meteorologists or research scientists) who are actively involved in the operational/research activities of their centres related to seasonal and subseasonal timescales. The meeting will be facilitated by 3 to 4 experts from the S2S project or other research institutes who will facilitate lectures and hands-on training sessions in collaboration with ASMC.

Proposed Structure for the Second S2S-SEA Workshop

Acknowledgement

MSS would like to thank WMO for their support and for providing the funds for the participation of the experts at the First Workshop. MSS also would like to express its appreciation to Dr. Robertson and Dr. Vitart for their guidance and contributions and also to all the participants for their active participation and constructive feedback.

References