Highlights

• In the second-half of 2019,
  • The multi-model ensemble from interational climate centers had predicted weak to strong sea surface temperature warm anomalies over the Nino3.4 region. However, neutral El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevailled during the review period.
  • In contrast, a strong, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) was observed as predicted by the models. This brought about drier and, consequently, warmer conditions in the Southeast Asia region, especially the western Maritime Continent. The drier conditions contributed to the transboundary haze which peaked over many parts of the southern ASEAN region in September 2019.
  • Notwithstanding the drier conditions induced by the IOD, the region was hit by several extreme flood events caused by tropical cyclones (the Philippines and Thailand) and other circulation anomalies (Brunei Darussalam and Viet Nam)
  • As part of the Regional Capability Building Programme for the ASEAN region, ASMC organised three workshops/forums covering important topics on seasonal predictions (ASEANCOF-13), numerical weather prediction, and haze and fire monitoring.
• For the upcoming March to May 2020 season,
  • Model predictions indicate the likelihood of neutral conditions for both the ENSO and IOD
  • Nevertheless, models predict the increased chances of below-normal rainfall over some parts of the region north of the Equator, and above-normal temperatures across the region.